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Distillation of News Flow intoAnalysis of Stock Reactions

机译:将新闻流提炼为股票反应分析

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摘要

News carry information of market moves. The gargantuan plethora of opinions, facts and tweets on financial business owners the opportunity to test and analyze the influence of such text sources on future directions of stocks. It also creates though the necessity to distill via statistical technology the informative elements of this prodigious and indeed colossal data source. Using mixed text sources from professional platforms, blog fora and stock message boards we distill via different lexica sentiment variables. These are employed for an analysis of stock reactions: volatility, volume and returns. An increased (negative) sentiment will in uence volatility as well as volume. This influuence is contingent on the lexical projection and different across GICS sectors. Based on review articles on 100 S&P 500 constituents for the period of October 20, 2009 to October 13, 2014 we project into BL, MPQA, LM lexica and use the distilled sentiment variables to forecast individual stock indicators in a panel context. Exploiting different lexical projections, and using different stock reaction indicators we aim at answering the following research questions: (i) Are the lexica consistent in their analytic ability to produce stock reaction indicators, including volatility, detrended log trading volume and return? (ii) To which degree is there an asymmetric response given the sentiment scales (positive v.s. negative)? (iii) Are the news of high attention firms diffusing faster and result in more timely and effcient stock reaction? (iv) Is there a sector specific reaction from the distilled sentiment measures? We find there is significant incremental information in the distilled news ow. The three lexica though are not consistent in their analytic ability. Based on confidence bands an asymmetric, attention-specific and sector-specific response of stock reactions is diagnosed.
机译:新闻带有市场动向的信息。大量有关金融业务所有者的观点,事实和推文,有机会测试和分析此类文本来源对股票未来走势的影响。尽管也有必要通过统计技术提取这个庞大且确实巨大的数据源的信息元素。使用来自专业平台,博客论坛和股票留言板的混合文本源,我们通过不同的lexica情感变量进行了提炼。这些用于分析股票反应:波动性,数量和回报。情绪上升(负面)将影响波动率和交易量。这种影响取决于词法预测,并且在GICS部门中有所不同。基于2009年10月20日至2014年10月13日期间100名标准普尔500成份股的评论文章,我们将其预测为BL,MPQA和LM词汇,并使用提炼的情绪变量在面板环境中预测单个股票指标。利用不同的词汇预测,并使用不同的股票反应指标,我们旨在回答以下研究问题:(i)词汇库在产生股票反应指标(包括波动性,趋势交易量和退货趋势)的分析能力方面是否一致? (ii)考虑到情感量表(正与负),在何种程度上出现不对称反应? (iii)引起高度关注的公司的消息传播速度更快,导致股票反应更加及时有效吗? (iv)提炼的情绪措施是否有针对特定行业的反应?我们发现摘要新闻流中有大量的增量信息。尽管这三种词典的分析能力不一致。基于置信带,可以诊断库存反应的不对称,关注特定和特定部门的响应。

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